Several Rounds of Heavy Rain Could Bring Flooding to Northwest Kansas Through Thursday

Residents across northwest Kansas and the surrounding NWKS Radio listening area could be in for a very wet stretch of weather, with the National Weather Service in Goodland warning that multiple rounds of rain may lead to flooding in some locations through Thursday.

According to the National Weather Service, this is expected to be a long-duration rain event, but that does not mean it will rain continuously. Instead, rain is expected to arrive in waves with periods of drier weather in between.

From US National Weather Service in Goodland. Posted 9/29/26 at noon

When will the heaviest rain arrive?

Rain chances will continue through much of the period, with precipitation likely winding down near sunset Thursday.

The two main rounds of rain are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The NWS cautions that a break in the rain does not mean the event is over, as additional rounds could develop later.

1 to 3 inches expected for much of the area

A majority of the region is forecast to receive between 1 and 3 inches of rain during the event. Because that rain is expected to fall over several days rather than all at once, the NWS says that should help limit flooding problems in many locations.

The bigger concern comes if thunderstorms repeatedly move over the same location or if a band of heavier rain stalls over one area. Slow-moving thunderstorms could potentially drop a couple inches of rain in only a couple of hours.

The NWS forecast shows lower-end totals around 1.36 inches near Goodland, 1.32 inches near Colby, 1.22 inches near Burlington and 1.03 inches near Atwood. Higher amounts are possible, especially farther south and east.

Could we really see 6 inches or more?

It is possible, but that is considered a low-probability scenario.

The NWS says that if conditions come together just right, a few localized areas could receive more than 6 inches of rain, with high-end totals potentially reaching 6 to 9 inches. The chance of that happening is currently estimated at only 5 to 10 percent, and those extreme totals would be expected in isolated areas rather than across the entire region.

The better chance for those high-end amounts is generally along and south of Interstate 70, particularly closer to Central Kansas.

Flooding will depend on where the heaviest rain sets up

The National Weather Service currently puts its overall confidence of seeing an instance or two of flooding somewhere in the area at 30 to 50 percent.

The biggest determining factor will be how the rain develops. Several inches spread over multiple days would be easier for the area to handle. However, strong thunderstorms, slow-moving storms or repeated rounds of rain over the same location could quickly increase the flooding threat.

Flooding could result in damage to property and infrastructure, and the threat covers the entire area, although heavier rainfall currently favors locations closer to Central Kansas.

For now, keep the umbrella handy and don't let a temporary break in the rain fool you. This will be a multi-day weather event, and NWKS Radio will continue to keep you updated with the latest forecasts, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service in Goodland.